June 5, 2012

Change Management: Why people resist change?




Introduction

Every organization will go through a change cycle due to demands of external pressure or
internal pressure. Organizational change is the transitioning of an organization from its current state
towards a desired future state (Palmer, Dunfin & Akin, 2006). Any type of organizational change
will involve changes to individual's roles and responsibilities and its natural that people will resist
when they feel threatened by these changes. Resistance to change is the unwillingness or an inability
to accept changes that is perceived to be threatening to an individual (Buchanan & Huczynski,
2010). Factors influencing an individual's resistance to change can be associated with psychological
factors like breach of psychological contract, to various other combination of psychological barriers,
contextual barriers and sociological barriers.

Psychological contract

In a workplace environment, where certainty and stability exists to an employees obligations
towards set of tasks and responsibilities, change becomes more difficult to introduce and accept as it
creates a disturbance of an employer's implied pact with the employers (Strebel,1996). This implied
pact is the psychological contract that the employees have with their employer. According to Warr
(2002), a psychological contract can be defined as the implicit relationship between employer and
employee based on mutual beliefs, expectation and informal obligation towards each other. It is the
mutual expectations of inputs and outcomes from the viewpoint of employees formed out of job
description, workplace values and social dimensions. This psychological contract influences
employees behavior and attitudes towards the employer. Employee's trust, commitment,
enthusiasm, and job satisfaction depend on a fair and balanced psychological contract. A Change
will alter these terms as it immediately creates a new relationship comprising of uncertainty between
employees and employers. When the contract is regarded by employees to be broken, they lose the
psychological equilibrium that they value and human inertia makes people cling to certainty and
stability (Conner, 1998).

Psychological Barriers

People like safety, comfort and feeling of control in their work environment. When they feel
their security is threatened due to change, psychological barriers will prevent them from accepting
change. Some of the common psychological barriers that creates an individual's resistance to change
are ;


  •  Uncertainty

When details about why and how change is being implemented is not clear, it creates
uncertainty among individuals and change will be resisted.


  • Confidence

A lack of confidence in individuals that they have necessary skills to be able to perform in their
new role and their ability to adapt to their new role will create a resistance of change.


  • Anxiety

Uncertainty and low confidence will create anxiety and stress in people. It is natural for
individual to reduce the source of this anxiety by resisting change.


  • Fear

An individual's reaction to fear is either to fight or flee. Fear of unknown will create resistance
to change and some employees will just leave.


  • Personality

Some people will be naturally resistant to change due to their personality. Personality
characteristics determine how an individual behaves when faced with an organization change.
Some have certain personality traits that have low tolerance to change irrespective of whether
the change is positive and beneficial. An individual's openness to change can be predicted by
personality traits like self-esteem, risk tolerance, need for achievement and locus of control
(Oreg , 2006). Personality types who typically value independence, stability, order and
consistency like to things to stay the same as it can be a source of comfort and security.


Contextual Barriers

According to Oreg (2006),variables in an organizational context can be factors that prevents
employees from accepting change. The three common types of contextual barriers to employee
change acceptance that were suggested by number of studies and cited by Oreg (2006) are;


  • Power and Prestige

Organizational change is likely to involve changes to employees roles and position. Threats to
power and relinquishment of power can create resistance to change. Organizational change can
make some employees get more powerful roles, whilst others might lose the power they once
had.

  • Job Security

When employees fear losing their jobs due to change, they will resist it. Employee's resistance
to change is found to have significant correlation to the threat to job security (Oreg 2006).
• Intrinsic rewards
Organizational changes can involve changes to tasks and responsibilities causing a perceived
threat to intrinsic rewards like autonomy, challenge and self-determination. An employee's
ability to satisfy these intrinsic needs influence employees their attitude and behavior towards
change (Oreg, 2006).

Sociological Barriers

Resistance to change is usually by individuals, but the nature of the organization and their
surrounding environment can also influence an individual to resist change.

  • Group Norms and Values

Groups form strong norms that govern their behavior with each other. Change alters role and
relationships within a group and may force them to stay together and fight to keep the status
quo. If there is conflict between the change values and group values, resistance and opposition
to change will appear due to beliefs, loyalty and peer pressure.

  • Group Conformity

An individual's need to feel socially accepted by their group can create affective resistance.
When an individual is surrounded by group members who oppose change, they tend to develop
negative emotions to change even when they may not fully agree with a group’s resistance to
change (Oreg, 2006). If the group is highly cohesive, even reasonable changes will be met by
resistance.

An individual's barriers to change are exclusive to that individual. These factors that causes
resistance can not only vary from an individual level, but also to an organizational level and to the
extent of change itself. This makes it difficult to pinpoint the exact causes of individual's resistance
to organizational change. Kotter and Schlesinger (1979) provided the four most common causes for
resisting change. All of these causes essentially fall under the individual's psychological, sociological
and contextual barriers which was described before. According to Kotter and Schlesinger (1979), the
four basic causes of individual resistance to change are;


  • Parochial self-interest

According to Kotter and Schlesinger (1979) this is one of the main reason why people resist
change as they think they will lose something of personal value due to implications of change.
People are self-serving and mainly focussed by their needs. They are concerned with the effect
of change will have on themselves and their own interests. If they feel that change will not
benefit them they will resist the changes. People also worry that the change will make them
fail or show their incompetencies due to the perception that they lack skills to perform change
and fear losing their job.


  • Contradictory Assessments

This type of resistance occurs when people feel the change is not necessary or that there are
better solutions than the proposed change and sometime they may outright disagree with the
reason behind the change. This occurs when people assess the rationale for change differently
than the organizational management or the change initiator.


  • Misunderstanding and Lack of trust

People may not fully understand the needs for the change due to lack of communication. When
their questions are unanswered, it creates a sense of fear, stress and mistrust which leads to
resistance.

  •  Low tolerance for change

People have varying limitation to accepting and adapting to change due to their individual
attitudes and behavior. Some adapt to change quickly, whilst others can take a long time to
accept change. Sometimes people with low level of confidence will likely take more time to
accept change as they fear that they do not have skills required to take on the new
responsibilities needed by the change.

Resistance is an inevitable response to any change as individuals initial reaction is to defend
the status quo when they feel their security is threatened. People do not resist change, they infact
resist the potential outcomes that change can cause to them based on their perception (Palmer,
Dunford & Akin, 2006). The keyword here is “perception”. Perception is what an individual thinks
about the change, i.e their assessment, judgement and rational view of the change. This perception
influences employee's behavior in facing the change. The resistance to change can have significant
effect on whether or not change gets accepted and implemented by organization. If an organizational
change is to succeed then organization and the people who work in them must be readied for change
transformation.


Managing resistance to change;

People must first change themselves before the organizational change can succeed (Bovey
and Hede, 2001). Change can affect people differently. People need time to adjust and adapt to new
behavioral and routines. Therefore it is important for managers to work with the human factors
associated with resistance. To diagnose the cause of resistance it is necessary to understand the
individual (Kotter and Schlesinger,1979).

Managing the resistance to change is the most difficult stage in the change process (Bovey &
Hede, 2001). According to Lewin's three stage change model, a change process will follow stages of
“Unfreezing” , “Change” and “Refreezing” (Palmer, Dunford & Akin, 2006). The first step of
unfreezing, is where the resistance to change is removed and readiness to change is created. The
second step is where the change process is implemented and the last step of “refreeze” is reenforcing
the new behaviors . For the organizational change to be successful it is vital that change gets
accepted by individuals first . To "unfreeze" the resistance to change in people, resistance must be
overcome by the acceptance to change. This process of overcoming resistance change is carried out
first during “unfreeze” stage in a change process. We will not discuss the the last two stages of
“Change” and “refreezing” in this essay.

There are lots of research done on how to manage individual's resistance to change and quite
a few change theories and models are used by organization. However it is important to understand
the there is no single change theory or model that will work in all situations, nor all the situation in
an organizational change are same. Which model would be appropriate depends on the type and
scale of change being undertaken. In this essay we will focus on approaches of “Re-establishing
psychological contract”, Scott & Jaffe's “Resistance Cycle” and Kotter & Schlesinger's “classic six
methods” as I believe that these three approaches highlights some key elements required to manage
and overcome resistance in any organizational change situation.

Re-establishing Psychological Contract;

Managers need to initiate the process of re-establishing the psychological contract with
employees through mutual trust and respect. During the organizational change initiation phase, it is
very easy for managers to underestimate the gap in employee's commitments and organization's
expectations towards the change. Managers must view the resistance from the employee's
perspective to understand the implicit terms which employees hold and revise these terms to remove
the gap. Unrevised terms will continue to resist change, thus revision of these old terms to align with
the change initiative is necessary. Organizations change strategy will not be successful unless this
revision of employee personal terms is tackled first (Strebel, 1996). Managers must make employees
understand the purpose and rationale behind the change initiative and make them understand the
consequences to the organization if the change objectives are not met. By making employees view
the change initiatives from the perspective of the organizational strategy, will alter the terms of
employees obligations and managers can re-establish the psychological contract and secure
commitments based on these revised terms that aligns with organizational strategy.

Resistance Cycle;

According to Scott and Jaffe's model of resistance cycle people go through four phases of
response to change, i.e., denial, resistance, exploration, and commitment (Palmer, Dunford & Akin,
2006). Each phase corresponds to specific behaviors and emotions of individuals facing change.
Denial and resistance phases are characterized by negative emotions like fear and threat, whilst the
phases of exploration and commitment are characterized by positive emotions like hopefulness. It is
critical that managers should be aware of these four phases as it requires different approaches to
address each individual depending on which stage in the resistance cycle those individuals are in.

• Denial results from insufficient knowledge related to change. It occurs when individuals believe
the change will have little, or no impact on them personally. Denial can be overcome by
involving individuals in the change process, providing them information about the change, and
have an open communication with individuals about their perceptions toward change. Managers
should make individuals understand their role in change and how it will affect them personally. .
Denial stage is characterized by calm and quietness among employees and managers should not
mistake this quietness of individuals who are in the denial phase as a “positive” emotion of
being “committed.”

• Resistance stage occurs when individuals begin to doubt the appropriateness of the change as a
result of contradictory assessments, misunderstanding or lack of trust. During this stage
managers should listen and acknowledge the feelings of resisters. Managers
should be engaging the resisting individuals in an open two-way communication that enables
managers to address their concerns, build and earn employee trust, and take corrective actions.
• Exploration phase reflects progress away from the resistance and towards acceptance of the
change. In this phase, individuals have accepted the reality of change and are seeking positive
outcomes from change. During this phase, employees are looking for opportunities and personal
self-interests. Managers should continue to motivate and encourage individuals during this
stage with communications, provide training and short term goals to focus on priorities and
move closer to commitment.

• Acceptance phase is characterized by individuals demonstrating their commitment to change.
During this stage managers should use milestone celebrations, rewards and team building to
motivate individuals to solidify change in their work and re-establish the psychological
contract.

Kotter and Schelesinger's Six Methods;

Kotter and Schelesinger (1979) proposed six strategies to address the source of the resistance to the
change. According to this approach the following six methods can be used to manage resistance to
change;


  • Education and Communication

Education and communication is the simplest way to overcome resistance to change as it not
only allows employees to understand the need and reason for change but also reduces
uncertainty (Bolognese, 2002). Once employees are persuaded, they will likely help with
implementing change, than to resist the change (Kotter & Schlesinger, 1979). Education will
avoid employees getting stuck in the denial phase of the resistance cycle for a long time and
helps employees to adopt new roles quickly. Training on new knowledge and skills specific to
change reduces fear of unknown whilst increasing a person's confidence with changes to
attitude and behaviours (Warr, 2002). Open communication that answers questions and
encourages feedback will eliminate employee mistrust about an organizational change, and also
promotes positive effects of change making them feel more involved with the change initiatives.
Open communication between management and employees is known to reduce stress levels
among employees (Warr, 2002).

  • Participation

According to Bove and Hede (2002), it is hard for an individual to resist a change decision in
which they participated. People who participate will be well informed and committed to
implementing change (Kotter & Schlesinger, 1979). Employee participation during the change
process creates a psychological ownership of decisions and accountability for their success.
Individuals who are allowed to contribute in change planning process will not have any mistrust
about the change and in fact are more committed to its success (Sims, 2002).

  • Facilitation and support

Change affects employees roles and routines, so managers support is essential to maintain a
certain level of comfort for the individuals affected and get them adjusted to the new role.
Facilitating and providing a forum for employees to share their concerns reduces fear and
anxiety which is one of the cause of resistance (Bolognese, 2002).Support activities like
counseling, stress management classes and even offering emotional support like listening or
empathizing will make an employee feel valued and encourage them in coping with change.


  • Negotiation and Agreement

During some circumstances, change will have an inevitable adverse effect on some individuals.
Negotiation is suitable when an individual will suffer loss due to the change (Bolognese, 2002).
Managers will have to recognize the negative effects of change and must negotiate with
employees on their specific concerns of resistance and provide incentives to them in exchange
for acceptance of change. Sometimes this can be the easiest way to avoid resistance (Kotter &
Schlesinger, 1979).


  • Manipulation and co-optation

Manipulation involves intentionally using selective information or skewing information in an
attempt to influence individuals to accept change . Co-optation is about getting acceptance from
employees by using tactics like appointing an individual to an important position to gain
acceptance. This can be the quick way to avoid resistance but can be dangerous in the future
once individuals become aware that they were manipulated (Kotter & Schlesinger, 1979).


  •  Coercion

When participative or motivation approach does not work, then managers have to use force or
threat to overcome resistance. Coercion includes using explicit or implicit threats like job loss,
promotion denial, bonus,etc. Sometimes coercion may be the only available option available to
managers, but with this approach managers need to take into consideration that individuals are
likely to develop resentment which might have long term negative effect on the organization.
(Kotter & Schlesinger, 1979).

Leadership in Change management ;

Kotter's six-method and Scott & Jeffe's approaches only provides strategic frameword to
manage resistance. To successfully carry out these strategies leadership is a key tool. Change is
dependent on the vision which can communicate the directions towards the change to the
organization (Warr, 2002). Leadership provides a vision for change that can influence, direct and
motivate people to take action and at the same time will reduce fear, uncertainty and improve
employee morale. An effective leadership has been shown as necessary to overcome the high levels
of uncertainty that accompanies change (Bass 1990).

When an organization goes through a change process, using the most effective leadership
style can directly impact the success of the change. There are many leadership styles like
participative, collaborative, coercive,democratic or authoritative. According to study conducted by
Oreg & Berson (2011), transformational leadership style is best suited to override employees’
resistance to change. Transformational leadership is a process of transforming the organizational
behavior and performance by influencing followers to share the leader’s vision and enable them to
enact beyond their specified responsibilities (Buchanan & Huczynski, 2010, p.618).
Some of the key behaviors of a transformational leader that can overcome individual's
resistance to change are;

• Transformational leaders can influence followers’ perceptions of change by providing a
common vision and making them see change as an opportunity rather than threat.
Transformational leaders participative style of management will allow people to accept change
and apply self-direction towards the change objectives without the feeling of threats. This style
is tied to McGregor's “Theory Y” of motivation, which produces better performance and
overcoming resistance (Buchnanan & Hucisky, 2008 .p250) .

• Transformational leader has the ability to inspire and align the follower's interests to that of
organization’s vision by using intrinsic motivators like empowerment, support, encouragement
and recognition. Intrinsic rewards has an influence on employee motivation and strongly tied to
higher performance than compared to extrinsic rewards (Buchnanan & Hucisky, 2008
.p280).Focussing on a common vision will have a lessening effect of individual personality and
when employees feel motivated and empowered, they are less resistant to changes.

• By paying attention to follower's own needs and interests and by respecting their followers,
transformational leadership promotes a trusting relationship between the leaders and the
followers. Therefore, the psychological contract is established leading to higher job satisfaction
and lower levels of stress among followers .

The results of study conducted by Seo et al, (2012) also show that transformational
leadership behaviors has a positive effect among employee behaviors relating to less resistant and
greater commitment to organizational change. However, it is important to consider that an effective
leader must be flexible to use a range of leadership styles when situation demands to enhance the
management of the change. For example, when coercion is the only available option left to
overcome resistance to change, then a leader should be able to adapt to a coercive leadership style.

Conclusion & Recommendation;

Change will always affect organization and change in an organization will always affect
people. Resistance to change is an inevitable psychological response that occurs in an individual.
Therefore resistance to change by people in an organization should be treated as normal reaction.
Sources of resistance are mainly individual psychological factors which creates psychological,
contextual and sociological barriers to accept change. With more significant the change, greater the
influence of these psychological factors have on an individual's resistance to change.
For an organizational change to succeed, the people who work in the organization must
accept change by overcoming their the sources of resistance. Therefore it is crucial for managers to
overcome the resistance by considering human factors and identifying the source of resistance
among employees. There are plenty of framework and strategies available for managers and
organization to use that can put employees at ease during change process and make them accept
change faster. Most of these change frameworks revolve around active participation, communication
and training as underlying motivational factors for overcoming individual resistance. Open
communication with employees and their active participation during change process is important for
overcoming resistance as they remove confusion and mistrust among employees and employers .
Education and training not only reduces the uncertainty and fear about the future implications of
change, but also a key motivator to implement change itself. Leadership is a key tool to manage the
resistance to change as it provides the vision and the rationale for change . Many studies have
identified transformational leadership style as most appropriate to effectively manage change
resistance.
To successfully overcome resistance, organization should be able to identify the likely
resisters, the reasons for their resistance and make informed decisions to overcome the resistance by
using effective leadership and combination of strategies or approaches outlined in this essay.

Reference ;

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Posted by Vaishak V. Suvarna on Tuesday, June 05, 2012

June 4, 2012

Scenario Planning & Strategy - Part 2



...continued from Part 1


4. Managing Uncertainty and Unpredictability


Orthodox strategic planning became popular in the 1960s, during the period consisting of primarily domestic competition, slow changes in industries and a predictable environment (McFarland, 2005). Orthodox strategic planning was appropriate in this environment. But today, business organizations operate in a volatile, hyper-competitive markets facing unpredictable events. Globalization has made business world closer and more connected than ever. Unpredictable events like 9/11 terrorist attacks in New york caused systematic meltdown of the global airline industry, 2008 credit crisis which initially started in real estate sector had a negative trickling effects on all other sectors of business, unexpected social shifts like the recent Arab uprisings had significant implications on an otherwise sound business sectors of North African tourism. And even unpredictable political events like, Saudi Arabia decision to ban Danish products in 2006.

Many businesses end up getting blindsided when these unpredictable events takes place. The reasons for getting blindsided is because the orthodox strategy model is inside-out rather than outside-in. This model is based on continuity in their current business environment with lack of curiosity about outer periphery. By establishing a single description of the current state and desired future state, formulating a robust one-dimensional strategy to get to the desired future state, this approach does not take into account unforeseeable events in the external environment and hence will fail to predict any major shifts to the firms external environment. Also, it doesn’t directly point the planning team’s attention towards threats which resides outside of their current industry business model. For example: Toyota's global automobile production was cut drastically when its supply chain was severely affected during the 2011 earthquake and tsunami in Japan. Another example is China's abrupt decision to block Google's internet services in China, which caught Google completely off guard and unprepared.

One thing is certain, that is disruptive events like these can happen anywhere and anytime. and businesses today operate with full of surprises and discontinuity. To anticipate these discontinuity organization need to think with foresight. Even though we cannot predict the future we can explore the futures by using scenario thinking process and anticipate these discontinuous. The philosophy of Scenario thinking is that the future is uncertain and unpredictable. Scenarios will make managers to think from a different mindset and anticipate various disruptive events that will affect the organization but currently is outside of their radar.


Predicting vs Anticipating ;


Scenario thinking starts with exploring the conceptual environment surrounding the periphery of the business sector. These forces are not obvious but can influence and shape the environment within which the sector operates. These could be global level, country level, or sector level which could potentially become specific. Since Scenarios are “alternative futures” that cannot be predicted due to uncertainty, the Scenario thinking approach challenges existing business models and stimulate strategic debate for new ideas which is radically different to the orthodox strategic planning method. Scenarios compel managers to begin the planning process by considering what could be, not what has been. In order to respond to undesired happenings such as the collapse of credit markets or natural disasters, organizations must be flexible and adaptive to change and respond as circumstances dictate. Scenarios suggest a number of possible changes to the status quo, it allows organizations to think through discontinuity and to come up with flexible plans composed of a variety of options. Once these scenarios are identified managers can have a strategic plan for handling those when such event occurs. If a scenario doesn't occur, the plan can be dropped and if a scenario takes place then organization is prepared and can quickly react to it, thus maximizing chance to success. Scenario thinking approach transforms an organization from being one of controlling risks to rather a navigating uncertainties.


Handling of Crisis ;


Orthodox planning makes the decision making process more complex for managers as there are no plans to deal with an unexpected situation that organization might face suddenly. During crisis, managers will have to make decisions faster. When managers are suddenly faced with these unexpected events and are not prepared for it, they end up making decisions based on their heuristics which leads to decision traps as explained earlier in this paper. Being unprepared also causes delays in making the right decisions and thus, may have a negative impact on the organization. Scenario thinking approach enables managers to come up with strategies that takes into account all forms of scenarios and how to manage them best. This puts managers in a position to make a quick and informed decisions when the event unfolds. For example, BP oil spill in the Gulf of Mexico is probably the worst man-made environmental disaster. This disaster not only impacted livelihood of people living in the coastal towns but threatened BP's business and its employees too. Now, BP could or could not have prevented this accident from happening in the first place, however BP could have used Scenario planning approach to strategically plan for worst-case scenarios like this large scale explosion and subsequent oil spill. Having a contingency plan in place would have put BP in a position to act faster and limit the negative impact.


Avoiding Crisis;


By looking at a system as a whole Scenarios provides early warning signs which helps managers and business organizations gain peripheral vision enabling them to pick up changes thats happening outside the business focus but could have significant impact on businesses. Decision makers will be able to recognize the scenario at the early stages should it actually be the one that unfolds. By involving a wide range of people in the scenario planning process, it creates an actionable foresight, allowing mangers the flexibility to make wise and well-reasoned decisions when they see signs for a potential crisis occurring. The organization can move forward by shifting its focus between these options and thus, enabling the organization to adapt its plans to the changing environment. Since scenarios offers flexible and multiple coverage strategies, we don't make decisions immediately, but this approach will prepare the mangers to make decision when situation unfolds thus avoiding a crisis.


5. Managing of Innovation


Orthodox strategy methods are about creating predictability and does not incorporate innovation in strategic planning. This method relies on past data to plan for future. When focussing on the past, the managers are forced to think in terms of what has happened in the past will most likely happen in the future. This creates a barrier for out-of-the box thinking. The problem is that focusing on the past emphasizes what has worked before, instead of new ways of thinking and doing. Large companies have large barriers to innovation because they have traditionally preferred a one solution view of strategy of sustaining growth, planning accordingly and thus, they could be less alert to the emergence of disruptive changes in their environment.


Disruptive Innovations ;


One of the most consistent patterns in business is the failure of leading companies to stay at the top of their industries when markets change due to 'Disruptive Innovations' (Bower & Christensen,1995). According to Christensen et al (1995), a disruptive innovation is an innovation that helps create a new market, and eventually goes on to disrupt an existing market by displacing an earlier technology. For Example, Netflix's DVD rental-by-mail business model was a disruptive innovation that caused the large US brick-and-mortar movie rental company Blockbuster to ultimately declare bankruptcy.

The modern business environment has shifted from industrial age to information age. In the information age era anyone can develop and distribute goods and services within a fraction of a traditional strategy execution time. These disruptive innovations can cause the failure of highly successful companies if their strategy is focussed on sustaining their businesses. Such successful companies can be blindsided by the emergence of disruptive innovations because they are essentially caught in the routine of maintaining the status quo. According to Christensen et al (1995) it is highly uncommon for firms that manage established lines of business effectively, to anticipate and respond well to a disruptive innovations coming from an external agent. Orthodox Strategic planning assumes that industry boundaries are given and hence does not push large organizations to think deeply about the sustainability of their organizations in a time of continuous disruptions, instead they become “performance organization”. These performance organization will focus on growth by sustaining a rate of improvements of their existing products and services rather than focussing on a game changing innovations.

Microsoft, for example, famously missed in 2000 to see the full potential of 'Google' and its internet search business and subsequently spent billions developing their own search technology 'Bing' to compete against 'Google' to get a share of the internet advertising market that they missed. By the time Microsoft released 'Bing', Google had a already gained a huge market share in the internet Search and advertising business and had become a very large company itself. Ironically 'Google' faced a similar problem few years later when they ignored the potential of social networking site 'Facebook'. By the time Google came out with 'Google+', their answer to Facebook, it was too late. The problem of course was that the Microsoft and Google who were once a disruptive innovators themselves , but as they grew to a large organizations, they started focussing on sustainability of their core technology rather than pursuing disruptive innovation. They had developed a mindset that entrenched a certain view of the world, and that view had worked very well in the past but failed to think flexibly about possible future scenarios. Both Microsoft and Google missed to act on the opportunities of the emerging ideas, instead were blindsided and had to react to the disruptive innovations.

In the business environment today, everyone faces threat from disruptive innovations, and the pursuit of innovation is the only viable strategy for building new business models that will secure the future of an organization. So it is critical that business must actively pursue innovation to strategically create disruptive innovations that will upset the industry status and create an environment for a new game. In this type of a turbulent environment Scenario thinking is a critical innovative tool (Leger, 2006)


Scenarios and Innovations;


According to Drucker (2007), the principles for successful innovation are;

  • Explore relevant environmental factors to analyze opportunity
  • Innovation is conceptual and perceptual
  • Innovation must satisfy a specific needs
  • Successful Innovation can achieves market leadership or create whole new industry.


Scenario thinking can be used as an innovation tool to support the above principles. Scenarios supports the analysis of opportunities with a range of market assumptions, to explore the competitive environment and develop a strategic position. The scenarios are essential in developing a picture of what was happening in the broader market and business environment that affected the product groups. Scenario thinking will free product planning from existing limitations of previous mindset that the company may be currently operating under. It makes us think about how we should act now instead of reacting later if a future scenario would become reality. Scenarios are creative and intuitive, therefore help organizations to quickly and easily make sense of converging and often conflicting trends so they can focus on identifying opportunities for innovation. Preparing this way helps organization to consider emerging ideas and discovers entirely new patterns that no one else has recognized.


6. Conclusion


Scenario thinking approach in organizational decision-making process is a useful tool in strategic planning. Strategy is about planning for the future and is affected by the environment both inside and outside the business boundaries. Unlike orthodox strategy planning method, scenario thinking incorporates business discontinuity and prepares the organization to visualize and deal with unpredictable set of situations. Thus, it makes the decision-making process more easier and faster when an unpredictable situation unfolds.

Scenario thinking also reduces the problem of Strategic Inertia and the decision failures caused by our mental models. By forcing decision makers to express multiple opinions and to consider alternative views, scenarios helps with falsifying decision making biases. Scenario thinking only has a positive affect on strategy management as it improves individuals thinking, leading to improved insights and ideas and thus make better decisions. Scenarios not only creates early warning signs that might be precursor to the desruptive future but also identifying opportunities for industry changing innovations. Scenarios are all about considering alternative futures and thus provoke out-of-the-box ideas which ultimately can lead to disruptive innovations.

Even though Scenario Thinking approach is considered being too costly and time consuming, in today's turbulent business environment, it is still an effective and efficient tool for organizational decision making process compared to orthodox strategic planning methods.

7. References


   < Intentionally Removed >

Posted by Vaishak V. Suvarna on Monday, June 04, 2012

June 1, 2012

Scenario Planning & Strategy - Part 1


1. Introduction

As the business environment gets turbulent with uncertainty, organizational decision making process is becoming very complex. Decision making is a vital part of a manager's daily activity especially in the strategic planning and management. In simple terms, strategy is about making decisions on the direction and scope of an organization over the long term (Johnson et al, 2010). This paper analyzes the usage of scenario thinking approach in strategic decision-making process in comparison with orthodox approach to strategic planning. There are a number of approaches used by managers to help in making strategic decisions. Scenario thinking approach and orthodox strategic planning approach are some of the tools that are used in strategic decision-making process. Scenario thinking approach is a method of divergent thinking with a belief that future is uncertain and unpredictable, whereas orthodox approach is convergent thinking with the belief the future can be predicted based on the past and current trends. This paper will compare the two approaches from the strategic planning perspectives of
'Managing Human Decision Traps', 'Managing Uncertainty and Unpredictability' and 'Managing of Innovation'.


2. Background

Orthodox or Traditional Strategy Planning Method ;


The orthodox or traditional strategic planning process tries to predict a one dimensional future with the assumption that environment will be static. It primarily involves forecasting by the analysis of trends and carrying the current trends into the future. This approach is vision or goal based process of answering “Where are we today?”, “Where do we want to go?” and “How do we get there?” by pre-determining the ideal desired future and planning a single robust strategy to reach that goal. The strategy formulation is heavily oriented towards quantitative analysis and based on assumption that all environmental variables can be measured and analyzed to ensure desired future can be controlled and met. The decision making process used in this approach is linear and logical in nature.

Key Characteristics ;

  • It is a predict and control approach focussing on the past.
  • It is a forecasting methodology. It assumes future is predictable and relies on quantitative analysis of past data as a means to forecast future conditions.
  • It assumes business continuity, hence the future strategies of an organization are influenced by the experiences of past successful strategies.
  • It focuses on setting goals and objectives to take the organization into the desired future.


Scenario Thinking Method :


Scenario Thinking or Scenario Planing method was originally used in the military applications. After the World War II, US Air Force came up with scenarios of what its opponents might do and tried to formulate alternative strategies for various possible scenarios. Herman Kahn, who worked for the US military and Rand Corporation used this technique in the field of business for the first time in the 1950s (Verity, 2003). Kahn used the term “scenarios” to describe the future in narration. Scenarios are not forecasts, they are stories of how the future of the business environment might unfold (Van Heijden, 2002). Scenario Thinking method got really popular in the 1970s when Royal Dutch/Shell had successfully used this method to traverse the 1973 oil crisis while others companies were blindsided when tOPEC nations caused the sudden shift in the external environment.

Scenario thinking, is a group strategic decision making tool used to make flexible longterm plans in a dynamic environmental context. This approach does not focus on accurately predicting the future, but is a process that creates a number of possible and plausible futures (Schoemaker, 1995). Scenario thinking involves a systems thinking, that emphasizes the relationships among many factors combined, rather than trying to analyze the factors in isolation. Thus, this approach allows the inclusion of change drivers that are in a way difficult to formalize, for example, a sudden shift in social values or a qualitative change in political environment. Scenarios takes complex elements and narrate them into a coherent, comprehensive, and plausible stories. These hypothesis will form a basis for strategic decision makings.

Key Characteristics ;

  • Scenario Thinking is foresight methodology. It assumes that the future is unpredictable and circumstances that surround the organization can change at any time.
  • This approach focuses on the future. It consists of creating multiple plausible future scenarios based on qualitative foresights rather than trying to predict a single outcome from the trend analysis of past.
  • This approach is about thinking creatively and allowing unconventional views to generate new insights.
  • It includes business discontinuity and ambiguity.
  • Scenarios are open-ended, adaptable and flexible to use.


3. Managing Human Decision Traps


Orthodox strategic planning uses rational decision making methods. According to Bazerman and Moore (2009), the six step rational Decision-making method is the process in which a manager follows the steps of 1). Defining the problem, 2). Identify all criteria, 3). Accurately weigh the criteria, 4). Generate alternatives 5). Asses alternatives against criterion and 6). Select optimal alternative in a rational manner. This is based upon the premise that individuals think, compare and evaluate alternatives rationally. However the field of behavioral economics has shown us that human beings do not make rational decisions all the time. Our decisions are primed by our values, beliefs and perceptions, i.e our mental models. They are part of our thinking processes hard wired into us as human beings. These beliefs and perceptions are often mistaken for facts and we make decisions based on our mental problems with unwanted consequences. Our cognitive biases and heuristics allow us to take mental shortcuts, so they make living and thinking a lot easier for us. But because we are using them unconsciously, they can
become decision traps.

Strategic Inertia :


According to Gary Klein (1998), human beings approach 95% of their decision making in a recognition primed way. Humans are exposed to these decision traps making the organization face the problem of “Strategic Inertia”. When businesses are facing constant changes , instead of pursuing a change in strategies, the managers cognitive biases will prevent them from changing the strategy and will instead make them stick to the business-as-usual strategy. This situation is called “Strategic Inertia” (Van Heijden, 2002). Strategies and decision making based on the past successes and routines creates “Confirmation bias” and “Overconfidence bias”. Confirmation biases makes managers to seek confirmatory information for what they think is true and fail to search for disconfirmatory evidence (Bazerman & Moore, 2009). Overconfidence bias is defined as when individuals tend to be overconfident of their judgements when faced with moderate to extremely difficult questions (Bazerman & Moore, 2009). In the orthodox strategy
planning, even though external environment is monitored, the threat can be discounted due to confirmation biases or over confidence. Even when a threat is perceived severe, “escalation of commitment” biases will make the managers to stay with the business-as-usual strategy. “Escalation of commitment” occurs when managers tend to make subsequent decisions that continue their initial commitment beyond the level of rationality (Bazerman & Moore, 2009). These decision traps puts the managers in an obsolete world view causing strategic inertia which gradually leads to organization losing touch with business environment (Van Heijen, 2002). Scenario thinking process is divergent thinking. It challenges the mental models and helps managers to come up with ideas by incorporating diverse perspectives. Managers are forced to breakout of their world views, exposing blind spots that would have been otherwise overlooked in their typical decision making process. Many of these decision traps are due to lack of “System Thinking”. Scenario thinking is a type of System thinking process that allows us to think deeper and further to understand a context from multiple perspectives, thus reducing our cognitive biases. Managers improve their mental model as they are forced to think beyond the walls of their conventional knowledge. They help individual perception as it provides a framework for individuals to understand and evaluate different trends as they are unfolding. Because scenario thinking requires a deep understanding of the effects of environmental forces, managers need to think beyond their beliefs and mind-set and be more creative and imaginative. In changing mental models, scenario thinking process will provide a more complete view of the world and reveal the assumptions made by an individual (Chermack T.J , 2004).

Bounded Rationality;


Scenario thinking also reduces the problem of “Bounded Rationality” which is one of the main sources of decision failures (Chermack T.J , 2004). Bounded Rationality is defined as limitations on information processing abilities of human minds (Bazerman and Moore, 2009). Bounded rationality inhibits rational decision making because human minds cannot generate all feasible alternative solutions, cannot process and assess all the information that can predict the consequences of choosing an alternative. Scenarios are effective in reducing bounded rationality as they communicate a huge amount of informations in a storied narrative form. This information is highly memorable and conversational, that would be acted upon by individuals. Any information that is memorable will have high significance to be acted upon when compared to information that remains unconscious (Chermack T.J , 2004).

Group-Think ;


Group-Think is the tendency of people to concur with the others as they are hesitant to express different points of view. A person will often make decisions based on what the majority of the people around them think. Group-think suppresses the ideas that are critical by tendency to concur with the position and the view of the group (Van Heijden, 2002). The construction of multiple scenarios during scenario thinking process creates a forum to debate different opinions, contrasting views and synthesis of conflicting viewpoints. This creates a process for synthesizing different viewpoints into a strategic focus. It provides a team learning environment where members can increase their creative skills and tend to understand and modify their way of thinking and also get to know the way other members usually think. Scenario Thinking approach encourages to have discussions with others and creates individual accountability, thus reducing the problem of group-think.




… continued in  Part 2



Posted by Vaishak V. Suvarna on Friday, June 01, 2012